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10/6/08
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12 comments
Campaign 2008
Analysts say Maine plays key election role
Expert: Palin visit could tip state to GOP
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District stretches from the western border with New Hampshire to the eastern tip of Washington County, encompassing everything north of Augusta. It’s the largest district east of the Mississippi River, filled with rural voters who don’t always align themselves with a political party but with specific ideals instead. Sen. John McCain’s announcement last week that he plans to make an aggressive advertising push in Maine has put the state, and especially its unique 2nd District, in the battleground category. Depending on the outcome in November’s presidential election between McCain and Sen. Barack Obama, the move could either be seen as brilliant or desperate. “The 2nd District is the kind of place where Republicans have done well,” said Mark Brewer, a political scientist at the University of Maine. “It’s largely rural, almost exclusively white, has a high rate of gun ownership. Those are traits usually associated with Republican voters.” Still, Brewer pointed out, Republican presidential candidates have yet to capture the 2nd District since Reagan. President George W. Bush came close in 2000 but still lost by 5,000 votes to Al Gore. As McCain plans to roll out ads in Maine, the real question is whether he or his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, will make a visit to the Pine Tree State. Christian Potholm, a professor at Bowdoin College in Brunswick and a political consultant, said a personal stop could seal the deal, with one stipulation. “I think it would be a complete bust if McCain comes, but if Palin comes and really does a whole day of campaigning, she could carry the 2nd District,” Potholm said. Because Maine is one of only two states to split its electoral votes, Republicans could nab one vote from the 2nd District. However, Potholm said if McCain and Palin really do well in the 2nd, it could tip all four of Maine’s electoral votes McCain’s way. “The polls in Maine have closed rather substantially since she was on the ticket,” he said. “Now, they would have to carry the 2nd District by a big margin for McCain to win the entire state, but it might be interesting.” Since the primary season ended in June, most political experts would agree that Maine has been squarely in Obama’s corner. While he hasn’t built a lead of Illinois-like proportions, the Democrat has held a comfortable edge. However, two recent polls show a tightening race. A SurveyUSA poll from Sept. 22-24 showed Obama with a 49-44 edge, and a Rasmussen poll on Sept. 17 had Obama on top 50-46. Rep. Josh Tardy, R-Newport, McCain’s vice chair for Maine, said Palin is likable in Maine because she embodies many qualities shared by rural Mainers. “I think a reform message is one that resonates here, particularly in the 2nd District,” he said. Another selling point is the high percentage of unenrolled, or independent, voters in the 2nd District, a group that outnumbers both Republicans and Democrats. “This is why I keep focusing on Palin,” Potholm said. “These independent voters tend to care less about policy and records, but want someone who thinks and acts like them. And of the four major candidates, she has the anti-establishment message.” “She helped, but I don’t know that she helped as much as other people think,” countered Brewer. “I’d be interested to see a recent poll.” Palin’s veneer has tarnished a little since her coming-out party in early September, thanks in part to unsteady interviews with CBS’ Katie Couric, although Palin did right the ship somewhat with her debate performance last Thursday. Both Potholm and Brewer agreed that a well-placed trip to Maine by Palin could help not just the 2nd District or the state but the entire race. “She would be very well-received here and it would be a great media opportunity for the campaign,” Brewer said, adding that he’s heard rumors of a Palin visit, although that has not been confirmed by the McCain campaign. In the meantime, McCain will stick to advertising. Because Maine media markets are much cheaper than more traditional battleground states like Ohio or Pennsylvania, it won’t take much money to flood the state with ads. McCain advisers also have said in recent days that they plan to step up attacks on Obama, so the ads are likely to be negative. Potholm said he would rather see commercials featuring Maine’s two popular Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins endorsing the McCain/Palin ticket. Amid all the attention, Toby McGrath, Obama’s campaign director for Maine, said he’s not concerned about the ads or a potential Maine visit by either McCain or Palin. “It wouldn’t change anything for us,” he said. “We’ll continue to do what we’ve been doing, which is focus on grassroots efforts.” That may be McCain’s Achilles’ heel. Obama, whose comprehensive ground operation helped propel him to victory over Clinton in the Democratic primary, holds an advantage over McCain in that regard as well, Brewer said. The Obama camp has 13 field offices in Maine from York County to Fort Kent, compared to only five for McCain. Still, it’s likely none of this would matter if Maine didn’t split its electoral votes. Nebraska is the only other state that splits votes, but political analysts wondered if that could change. “It seems that the Maine/Nebraska model would allow individual votes to count more. I don’t know why more haven’t done it,” Brewer said. “I guess it’s easier to keep the status quo.” Potholm admitted he didn’t know the history of why Maine and Nebraska split votes but agreed with Brewer. “I think it makes more sense. It would take power away from cities,” Potholm said. “Instead of Republicans immediately writing off New York State or Democrats always writing off Texas, you might see more genuine competition. Every state would be a battleground.”
Comments
College professors...seems everybody is an expert nowadays. Everyone predicts the future. Everyone seems to be so knowledgeable as to what will happen. I wonder if anyone tunes into newsmax.com to get some of the real possibilities of what is really happening; and this website is just one example of truthful enterprise reporting. Obama is an electorate/delegate candidate...with confusing programs. The same as Bill Clinton professed to be. Anyway, we will be watching television poolside, under the Japanese lanterns, cocktails and warm evening temperatures when the election results come in. IT STILL COMES DOWN TO- IF YOU BELIEVE IN FREE ENTERPRISE ,SMALL BUSINESS AND GUN OWNERSHIP YOU HAVE TO VOTE REPUBLICAN ESPECIALLY FOR SENATORS AND REPRENSETAVIES I will be voting for McCain- I am not a great Catholic, and I have a very long road ahead to ever get there, but when I was called a bible thumper by some pro Obama supporters for my abortion views~ it just underscored the pro-abortion Democrat hard line.
*My personal opinion on abortion is; A child’s life starts before birth, but exactly when I can not say- A woman’s right to decide her own medical treatment must not be impeded- An unborn child at some point has ten toes, ten fingers, two beautiful resting eyes, and a heartbeat that yearns for life-
So when can you say it’s not a human life?
My best suggestion, barring the hard left, or right coming to some middle ground, is that family unity and participation is a great preventative step from these situations from occurring to begin with.
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Senator Collins received $349,534 from Finance/Insurance/Real Estate interests and $96,947 from Lawyers & Lobbyists. And you wonder why we're in a major financial meltdown. Where was she? Paid to be absent.
Good that Maine will have a critical role in the election. I think the people of Maine are level headed and rational in our choices. Whatever happens with the election, I just hope that the next president makes better economic decisions. It just seems to be going from bad to worse. First gas price, then mortages, now jobs and a bailout. I don't know if the bailout was necessary or not. But, I know that small businesses were starting to get hurt because they couldn't get any credit. I sure hope that it starts to help the economy soon because it is getting really bad for people.
It seems like Congress doesn't have any idea how much people are suffering. I found this site that is collecting stories about how the economy is affecting us. They plan to put them together so they can relay a message to Congress. I sent in my story. Check it out. . .
http://www.friendsoftheuschamber.com/email/wall_street_3.html
I keep checking back because they are going to post the stories on the site. I really want to see what other people have to say. I hear stuff from my neighbors, but what about people in other parts of the country.
Maine voters will do the right thing .. whatever that is. I just hope the next President can do the same.
What I would like to know is with Palin traveling around the country campaigning, who is keeping an eye on the Soviet Union from her kitchen window? I still think she is a Gomer Pile with lipstick. There is another debate on the way in a day. Neither McCain nor Obama are planning to be "Mr. Nice Guy", to each other this time. Sure, Maine plays a key electorate role, and so does every other state in the union...but this economy in the US, may head right into a depression. Maine seems to be in dire straits already...but it, too, is a victim of US economic crisis. There seems to be no end in sight on this "bailout plan"...as now, even congress does not feel it will work in the short or long term. The US economy, as all of you know, is affecting the entire world. Because of the large corporate greed and self-interests of their CEO's...chief executive officers, making sixty million a year, then scimming another two hundred and thirty million in funds off the top, (CNN, 10/6/08, Situation Room, bite with Lehman Brothers CEO) even before the accountants get their hot computers on the accounting, This is going off the board a little from the article above, but according to "MoneySense" magazine, "March-April 2008", it states that the worlds biggest economies rate the US at a 3rd highest, preceded only by China and the European Union...with Japan right behind the US as 4th. Look at the land mass areas and the populations of these countries and do your comparison's. The article says the US is sliding down even lower...but due to the GDP per capita, it may hold it's own for awhile. It is easy to get the read on what is going on right now...but I doubt there is any savior as Presidential candidates are concerned, however, Maine's votes can go to what they believe will be the best as to what they have at this time. With the right combo of President, and the appointees to all cabinets and federal departments and the military...there may be some hope for the future...we cannot seem to get much lower. Helloooo! Anyone out there realize that Congress has been Democratic for the last few years. Any change, any regulation, any evidence that Congress has helped to prosper this nation? Blame it on Bush but Congress and the Senate are just as liable. They all lead. They all represent us. Maine hasn’t done much better under the failed and sad leadership of Democratic John Baldacci. Thanks to Mr. Baldacci’s policies funding for foster care was slashed. Dirigo is an absolute failure. Hospitals are not being reimbursed for services, their owed millions. Taxes are consuming our population and Maine is a barren field for businesses to grow. Obama is a wonderful puppet and he looks cute on the strings of the left-wing puppeteers. He can orate and he promises wonderful things. When you apply for a job you have to present a resume. His resume shows little leadership. It shows tax INCREASES. It shows associations with people that are clearly un-American. He has no foreign policy experience. And he has never, never presented an economic plan in the years he’s been in Washington already. In this day and age when we have countries like Russia coming back to life, countries like Iran we need leadership. These two countries are in bed together. Don’t be deceived. They hate America and Israel. We need a leader that will protect us and our allies from these aggressive and violent nations, and they aren‘t the only nations there that hate us. It amazes me how scared the Obama camp is scared of Sarah Palin. It’s because she can bring a resume of leadership with her to Washington. CNN, MSNBC, CBS, New York Times and even newspapers like this one has forgotten unbiased journalism. They hate this woman because she has morals. Because she is a successful working Christian mother. Because she didn’t have an abortion. Because she loves her husband . She has a clear and clean record so the hounds were sent to Alaska to dig and makeup dirt…shame on the media! Compare Sarah’s qualifications with Obama’s qualifications and Obama should make you laugh because he is a joke. Not only can John McCain lead, he can help clean up the mess of the last president, he can tighten the spending, he keep us safe. The smear by the Obama campaign to say Sarah Palin is only one heart beat away from being president…news flash…so isn’t Joe Biden. We are all one heart beat away from our next destination. Dear God I hope affirmative action is the reason this man gets elected. Because he surely hasn’t earned the presidency. Get real - the nation does not give a hoot about Maine's 4 electoral votes. The economy is being blamed on Bush and the GOP. So called political experts that theorize Maine is going to play an important role are smoking the funny stuff. Republicans are going to be punished on election day. What Maine voters do isn't going to tip the apple cart one way or the other. The state is too small in population and doesn't have enough electoral votes to mean anything. Atilla1...thanks for the heads up on the electoral votes. I empathize with your comment. I still plan to vote and will try to get those four votes to McCain/Palin. Honestly, it felt good to express how I feel about all the stuff flying around out there. Let's give our meager four votes to those who can lead. If you want real change vote out the whole congress and all senators that are running for re-election. The president does not have the power to change your everyday life that congress does. Get rid of all the flea bags in washington...... To Getreal: what about the Keeting 5 that Mccain was part of wouldn't consider that illegal and unamerican that he covered up and helped pass bill to protect a bank swindel...Now I consider that much worse then being on the same board.. they didn't and don't know each other well.. Obama was a child when Aires was with the Weatherman.... so that lends me to think he didn't have anything to do with the weatherman on the other hand we all know that Mccain had a lot to do Keeting.....the reason other country's hate us so is... that under Bush we have gone around bullying the world . If we had left Iraq alone Iran would still be a non power ....because Saddam kept them in check... canyou run round the world aimlessly poking a stick in everybodies eye and not expect them to get mad...G.W.Bush dosn't play well with others, and neither will J.S. Mccain is has been known most of his life as a mean hateful bully and I for one don't want that kind of a man in the Oval Office.....and as far as Palin goes in Alaska The men out number the women almost 3 to 1 do you think her looks might have had somthing to do with her getting the Job |
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